Here are a few samples of written work I’ve done.
Writing samples from my work at S&P European MarketScope :
New York Market Commentary – 23 September 2010, 13:04 GMT
Wall Street is set for a lower start, as disappointing macro data in the US and Europe depress investor sentiment further. Initial claims rose by 12k on last week’s revised figure to 465k, which indicate more initial jobless claimants than the expected 450k. Continuous claims also failed to meet forecasts, coming in at 4.489m vs consensus of 4.460m. However, note that last week’s figure was revised upwards to 4.537m from 4.485m (which in fact makes this week’s reading lower w/w). At 14:00 GMT, leading indicators for August (consensus: +0.1%) and existing home sales will be released. Home sales are expected to rise to 4.10m in August from 3.83m. The oil price mirrors the gloomy sentiment: WTI trades -0.9% lower at US$73.81/bbl, while other commodities are rallying on the back of the weak dollar: gold remains close to the US$1,300/ounce high, and copper and aluminium also jump. Surging green coffee prices prompted STARBUCKS to announce that it will have to raise prices of labour-intensive and larger-sized drinks in an attempt to keep the prices of its popular beverages stable.
Elsewhere, MCDONALDS raises its quarterly dividend by 11% to US$0.61/share. The new figure is equivalent to US$2.44/ share annually. After the closing bell yesterday, RED HAT reported 2Q EPS ex-items of US$0.19, beating the Street view by a penny, due to a sharp rise in software sales. However, the profit of the world’s biggest provider of Linux software still fell to US$23.7m from US$28.9m last year, when Red Hat recorded a one-time US$7.3 million tax gain. On the back of the news, JP Morgan ups Red Hat’s price target to US$27 vs US$24. After the close today, NIKE will release its 1Q results with EPS expected to fall slightly to US$1.01 vs US$1.04 y/y.
US automaker General Motors plans to sell most of its stock in its IPO to US investors and aims to set the initial share price low enough to attract retail investors, according to people familiar with the matter.
Sector insight
REAL ESTATE: KEPLER SEES FURTHER UPSIDE IN THE MEDIUM TERM – 23 September 2010, 8:15 GMT
Kepler believes that mid-term returns in the real estate sector suggest further upside. Notes that while immediate upside is limited, mid-term returns remain attractive. Adds that returns are between 18% and 50%, while immediate upside is rarely above 10%. Expects cap rates to continue to decrease, and rents to flatten, giving good visibility regarding the downcycle and making us confident that the risk of downside is low. However, adds that immediate upside also looks limited by macro uncertainties, as potential value creation in the coming years is largely cancelled by the weight of discounted ratios.
At current prices, Kepler prefers KLEPIERRE (buy, ups target to EUR 30.50 vs EUR 28.00) to UNIBAIL RODAMCO (downgrades to hold from buy, ups target to EUR 160 vs EUR 154). Maintains its buy recommendation on GECINA (ups target to EUR 90 vs EUR 84) and ICADE (ups target to EUR 88 vs EUR 81) but would favour Gecina in the short-term, while noting that 2011 earnings momentum could be excellent for Icade. Prefers DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP (hold, EUR 27 target) to MERCIALYS (downgrades to reduce from hold but ups target to EUR 27 from EUR 26), given Germany’s better macro outlook and the recent excessive levels of Mercialys’ share price. Maintains its buy rating on NEXITY (EUR 31 target) and KAFMAN & BROAD (EUR 23 target), and its hold recommendation on EUROSIC (EUR 26 target). Kepler initiates coverage on ANF with buy and EUR 37 target price, offering 23% mid-term upside.
/Stefanie Linhardt – S&P MarketScope
Other written work:
Courant7 articles
21 Oct 2009 “Police are discussing new methods to tackle security issues at premieres”
20 Oct 2009 “Power cut in London”
15 Oct 2009 “Bus and Tube fares to rise in 2010″
14 Oct 2009 “London holds Breath for Transport Announcement Tomorrow”
12 Oct 2009 “QPR – New sponsorship deal imminent in wake of Briatore verdict”
e-politik articles
09 Jun 2009 “Quo vadis Gordon Brown?”
20 Feb 2008 “Italien im Schwebezustand”
